Climate Adaptation

In 2024, the global average temperature surpassed 1.5 °C [2.7 °F] above pre-industrial levels for the first time, marking the hottest year on record and continuing a troubling trend in which 24 of the warmest years have all occurred since 2000 ⁽¹⁾. This pattern is expected to accelerate, with the global average temperature expected to rise by 2°C [3.6°F] or more until 2050, if all current policies are implemented ⁽²⁾. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), every 1°C [1.8 °F] rise in global temperatures results in a 25% increase in global cooling degree days (CDDs). CDDs are a measure of how much and for how long the outside temperature exceeds a specific baseline, typically 18°C [64.4 °F], implying a significantly higher need for cooling going forward.

By 2050, nearly 1,000 cities are expected to face average summer highs of 35°C [95 °F] or more, up from 354 cities today, putting 1.6 billion urban residents at risk of extreme heat — an 800% increase ⁽³⁾. This escalating heat will disrupt ecosystems, strain healthcare systems, and impose severe burdens on global economies. Heat stress is projected to reduce global working hours by 2.2% by 2030, equivalent to the loss of 80 million full-time jobs ⁽⁴⁾. At present, heat-related fatalities account for nearly half a million deaths annually, a figure that is likely to rise further due to aging populations and rapid urbanization ⁽⁵⁾. For example, cities like Delhi and Karachi are experiencing an increased frequency of deadly heatwaves that claim thousands of lives and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including the elderly ⁽⁶⁾.

In a world that is becoming increasingly hot, buildings will play a pivotal role in protecting public health and sustaining productivity. Architectural designs, material choices for building envelopes, and the adoption of efficient cooling systems will become critical.

To reduce solar heat gain, future designs will integrate features like porticos, trellises, awnings, louvers, and blinds. Strategic building orientation and vegetative solutions, such as green roofs and living walls, will enhance insulation and minimize heat absorption. Landscaping with deciduous trees and urban greening will improve airflow, provide seasonal shading, and lower ambient temperatures by several degrees. However, balancing aesthetic appeal with energy efficiency remains a challenge. Visual considerations should no longer overshadow practical features like shading structures ⁽⁷⁾.

Building envelope materials will also play an increasingly vital role. High thermal mass materials, such as stone and earth, which are commonly used in traditional buildings in the Mediterranean and North African regions, naturally regulate indoor temperatures and reduce reliance on mechanical cooling ⁽⁷⁾. Innovative materials like vacuum insulation panels, silica aerogel, and advanced coatings with reflective properties are pushing the boundaries of efficiency. These technologies enable thinner insulation with up to five times the effectiveness of traditional materials.

Despite the likely adoption of these passive cooling measures, the demand for active cooling systems capable of adapting to extreme weather conditions is yet to surge worldwide, driven by both emerging and developed economies. In emerging economies, rising incomes and improved access to electricity will accelerate the adoption of air conditioning. In developed economies — often located in more temperate regions — rising temperatures and the adoption of heat pumps, which can provide cooling when operated in reverse, will increase electric demand. Consequently, cooling is becoming the fastest-growing energy use in buildings. According to the IEA, global energy demand for space cooling is expected to more than triple by 2050, consuming as much electricity as China and India use today combined ⁽⁷⁾. This surge in demand underscores the urgent need for smart cooling strategies, such as building night cooling and energy-efficient cooling solutions.